Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Cleveland Browns 4th & 7 at the 69

Cleveland Browns 0 – New York Jets 0

What Actually Happened

(2:21) 4-B.Colquitt punts 3 yards to CLE 34, Center-47-C.Hughlett. 23-T.Brooks MUFFS catch, ball out of bounds at CLE 28. 56 Pierre-Louis deflected punt

The Three Options

GO -1.37 EP

39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 62, worth +2.33 EP
61% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 69, worth -3.70 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (86 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model