4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 17 at the 42

Pittsburgh Steelers 16 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 7

What Actually Happened

(3:48) 4-J.Berry punts 40 yards to TB 2, Center-57-K.Canaday, downed by PIT-88-D.Heyward-Bey.

The Three Options

GO -0.54 EP
Model's Pick
  • 27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 25, worth +4.07 EP
  • 73% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 42, worth -2.22 EP
KICK -0.69 EP
  • 47% chance to make a 59-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.70 EP
  • 53% chance to miss: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.82 EP
PUNT -0.63 EP
What Happened
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 12, worth -0.63 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model