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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 3 at the 3

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 7 – Pittsburgh Steelers 23

What Actually Happened

(1:17) 7-C.Catanzaro 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-89-G.Sanborn, Holder-9-B.Anger.

The Three Options

GO +3.17 EP
Model's Pick
  • 49% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.14 EP
  • 51% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 3, worth +0.27 EP
KICK +2.14 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 20-yard field goal: 3 points, then Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.19 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 21, worth -0.58 EP
PUNT -0.03 EP
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.03 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.03 EP