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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 10 at the 10

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 10 – Pittsburgh Steelers 30

What Actually Happened

(7:10) 7-C.Catanzaro 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-89-G.Sanborn, Holder-9-B.Anger.

The Three Options

GO +2.08 EP
  • 31% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.17 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 10, worth +0.25 EP
KICK +2.12 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 96% chance to make a 27-yard field goal: 3 points, then Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.22 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 21, worth -0.51 EP
PUNT +0.15 EP
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.15 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model