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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 6 at the 42

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 13 – Pittsburgh Steelers 30

What Actually Happened

(13:49) (Shotgun) 14-R.Fitzpatrick pass short left to 84-C.Brate pushed ob at PIT 33 for 9 yards (31-N.Berhe) [91-S.Tuitt].

The Three Options

GO +0.95 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 36, worth +4.06 EP
  • 57% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 42, worth -1.39 EP
KICK +0.21 EP
  • 47% chance to make a 59-yard field goal: 3 points, then Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.90 EP
  • 53% chance to miss: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.19 EP
PUNT +0.86 EP
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 12, worth +0.86 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model