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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 17 at the 36

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 7 – Pittsburgh Steelers 6

What Actually Happened

(2:10) 9-B.Anger punts 28 yards to PIT 8, Center-89-G.Sanborn, downed by TB-39-I.Johnson.

The Three Options

GO +0.10 EP
  • 26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 19, worth +4.93 EP
  • 74% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 36, worth -1.63 EP
KICK +0.54 EP
Model's Pick
  • 63% chance to make a 53-yard field goal: 3 points, then Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.26 EP
  • 37% chance to miss: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 46, worth -2.37 EP
PUNT +0.12 EP
What Happened
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.12 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.42 EP