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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 10 at the 80

Jacksonville Jaguars 3 – Tennessee Titans 3

What Actually Happened

(2:35) 9-L.Cooke punts 40 yards to TEN 40, Center-46-C.Tinker. 18-R.Matthews to 50 for 10 yards (22-C.Davis; 81-N.Paul).

The Three Options

GO -2.18 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.56 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 80, worth -4.30 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (97 yards).

PUNT -1.51 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 37, worth -1.51 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model