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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 14 at the 52

Jacksonville Jaguars 0 – Tennessee Titans 0

What Actually Happened

(11:35) 9-L.Cooke punts 52 yards to end zone, Center-46-C.Tinker, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -0.84 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 38, worth +3.73 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 52, worth -2.62 EP
KICK -1.54 EP
  • 20% chance to make a 69-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.40 EP
  • 80% chance to miss: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 49, worth -2.53 EP
PUNT -0.08 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 15, worth -0.08 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model