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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Tennessee Titans 4th & 11 at the 18

Tennessee Titans 3 – Jacksonville Jaguars 3

What Actually Happened

(10:05) (Field Goal formation) 4-R.Succop 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-B.Brinkley, Holder-6-B.Kern.

The Three Options

GO +0.74 EP
  • 25% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 7, worth +5.39 EP
  • 75% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 18, worth -0.81 EP
KICK +1.53 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 91% chance to make a 35-yard field goal: 3 points, then Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.82 EP
  • 9% chance to miss: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 28, worth -1.46 EP
PUNT -0.16 EP
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 11, worth -0.16 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model