Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Tennessee Titans 4th & 15 at the 85

Tennessee Titans 0 – Jacksonville Jaguars 0

(10:04) 6-B.Kern punts 45 yards to JAX 40, Center-48-B.Brinkley, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -3.53 EP

28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +0.92 EP
72% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 85, worth -5.23 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (102 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model