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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 5 at the 20

Jacksonville Jaguars 3 – Tennessee Titans 6

What Actually Happened

(11:31) 4-J.Lambo 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Tinker, Holder-9-L.Cooke.

The Three Options

GO +1.46 EP
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 15, worth +4.97 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 20, worth -0.86 EP
KICK +1.54 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 90% chance to make a 37-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.88 EP
  • 10% chance to miss: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 30, worth -1.35 EP
PUNT -0.25 EP
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 11, worth -0.25 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model