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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Tennessee Titans 4th & 3 at the 10

Tennessee Titans 6 – Jacksonville Jaguars 6

What Actually Happened

(4:13) 4-R.Succop 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-B.Brinkley, Holder-6-B.Kern.

The Three Options

GO +2.19 EP
Model's Pick
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 7, worth +5.33 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 10, worth -0.22 EP
KICK +2.09 EP
What Happened
  • 96% chance to make a 27-yard field goal: 3 points, then Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.19 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 21, worth -0.57 EP
PUNT -0.25 EP
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 11, worth -0.25 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model