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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 3 at the 68

Jacksonville Jaguars 6 – Tennessee Titans 9

What Actually Happened

(2:51) 9-L.Cooke punts 45 yards to TEN 23, Center-46-C.Tinker. 18-R.Matthews to TEN 24 for 1 yard (41-T.Herndon).

The Three Options

GO -0.80 EP
Model's Pick
  • 55% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.13 EP
  • 45% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 68, worth -3.12 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (85 yards).

PUNT -0.94 EP
What Happened
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 26, worth -0.94 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model