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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 3 at the 55

Jacksonville Jaguars 0 – Tennessee Titans 3

What Actually Happened

(1:33) 9-L.Cooke punts 51 yards to TEN 4, Center-46-C.Tinker, downed by JAX-80-J.O'Shaughnessy.

The Three Options

GO +0.42 EP
Model's Pick
  • 53% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 52, worth +3.02 EP
  • 47% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 55, worth -2.51 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (72 yards).

PUNT +0.04 EP
What Happened
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 16, worth +0.04 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.38 EP