Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Buffalo Bills 4th & 15 at the 90

Buffalo Bills 0 – Green Bay Packers 13

(9:31) 9-C.Bojorquez punts 48 yards to GB 42, Center-69-R.Ferguson. 38-T.Williams to GB 43 for 1 yard (26-T.Jones).

The Three Options

GO -3.38 EP

30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 75, worth +1.22 EP
70% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 90, worth -5.33 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (107 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model