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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Buffalo Bills 4th & 5 at the 44

Buffalo Bills 0 – Green Bay Packers 13

What Actually Happened

(7:39) 9-C.Bojorquez punts 33 yards to GB 11, Center-69-R.Ferguson, fair catch by 38-T.Williams.

The Three Options

GO +0.17 EP
Model's Pick
  • 41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 39, worth +3.51 EP
  • 59% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 44, worth -2.17 EP
KICK -0.94 EP
  • 39% chance to make a 61-yard field goal: 3 points, then Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.97 EP
  • 61% chance to miss: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.77 EP
PUNT +0.01 EP
What Happened
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 12, worth +0.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model