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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Green Bay Packers 4th & 13 at the 51

Green Bay Packers 13 – Buffalo Bills 0

What Actually Happened

(2:48) 51-K.Fackrell reported in as eligible. 6-J.Scott punts 51 yards to end zone, Center-43-H.Bradley, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -0.73 EP
  • 27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 38, worth +3.54 EP
  • 73% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 51, worth -2.30 EP
KICK -1.31 EP
  • 23% chance to make a 68-yard field goal: 3 points, then Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.03 EP
  • 77% chance to miss: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 49, worth -2.29 EP
PUNT -0.46 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 14, worth -0.46 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model