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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Green Bay Packers 4th & 8 at the 18

Green Bay Packers 16 – Buffalo Bills 0

What Actually Happened

(11:17) 2-M.Crosby 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-43-H.Bradley, Holder-6-J.Scott.

The Three Options

GO +1.23 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 10, worth +5.38 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 18, worth -0.55 EP
KICK +1.84 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 92% chance to make a 35-yard field goal: 3 points, then Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.13 EP
  • 8% chance to miss: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 28, worth -1.21 EP
PUNT +0.07 EP
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 11, worth +0.07 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model