Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Buffalo Bills 4th & 11 at the 65

Buffalo Bills 0 – Green Bay Packers 19

What Actually Happened

(2:50) 9-C.Bojorquez punts 49 yards to GB 16, Center-69-R.Ferguson. 38-T.Williams to GB 19 for 3 yards (57-L.Alexander). Penalty on GB-27-J.Jones, Defensive Offside, declined.

The Three Options

GO -1.73 EP

31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 54, worth +2.52 EP
69% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 65, worth -3.67 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (82 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model