Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Buffalo Bills 4th & 19 at the 71

Buffalo Bills 0 – Green Bay Packers 19

(15:00) 9-C.Bojorquez punts 39 yards to GB 32, Center-69-R.Ferguson. 38-T.Williams to GB 33 for 1 yard (26-T.Jones).

The Three Options

GO -2.44 EP

25% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 52, worth +2.57 EP
75% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 71, worth -4.08 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (88 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model