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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Green Bay Packers 4th & 11 at the 41

Green Bay Packers 0 – Buffalo Bills 0

What Actually Happened

(8:21) 6-J.Scott punts 35 yards to BUF 6, Center-43-H.Bradley, fair catch by 23-M.Hyde.

The Three Options

GO -0.12 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 30, worth +4.12 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 41, worth -1.77 EP
KICK -0.28 EP
  • 47% chance to make a 58-yard field goal: 3 points, then Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.24 EP
  • 53% chance to miss: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 49, worth -2.49 EP
PUNT +0.04 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 12, worth +0.04 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model