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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Green Bay Packers 4th & 16 at the 34

Green Bay Packers 19 – Buffalo Bills 0

What Actually Happened

(2:00) 2-M.Crosby 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-43-H.Bradley, Holder-6-J.Scott.

The Three Options

GO -0.71 EP
  • 23% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 18, worth +1.79 EP
  • 77% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 34, worth -1.44 EP
KICK +0.53 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 65% chance to make a 51-yard field goal: 3 points, then Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.75 EP
  • 35% chance to miss: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 44, worth -1.75 EP
PUNT -0.65 EP
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 11, worth -0.65 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model