Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Buffalo Bills 4th & 10 at the 94

Buffalo Bills 0 – Green Bay Packers 0

(8:01) 9-C.Bojorquez punts 50 yards to GB 44, Center-69-R.Ferguson, fair catch by 38-T.Williams.

The Three Options

GO -3.56 EP

36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 84, worth +0.32 EP
64% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 94, worth -5.76 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (111 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model