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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Buffalo Bills 4th & 5 at the 47

Buffalo Bills 0 – Green Bay Packers 6

What Actually Happened

(1:36) 9-C.Bojorquez punts 36 yards to GB 11, Center-69-R.Ferguson. 38-T.Williams to GB 17 for 6 yards (50-R.Humber, 30-L.Pitts).

The Three Options

GO -0.36 EP
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 42, worth +2.94 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 47, worth -2.70 EP
KICK -1.35 EP
  • 31% chance to make a 64-yard field goal: 3 points, then Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.90 EP
  • 69% chance to miss: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.83 EP
PUNT -0.20 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 13, worth -0.20 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model