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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 2 at the 29

Las Vegas Raiders 7 – Cleveland Browns 3

What Actually Happened

(12:50) 3-M.McCrane 47 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-47-T.Sieg, Holder-5-J.Townsend.

The Three Options

GO +1.80 EP
Model's Pick
  • 53% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 27, worth +4.36 EP
  • 47% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 29, worth -1.09 EP
KICK +1.25 EP
What Happened
  • 77% chance to make a 46-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.18 EP
  • 23% chance to miss: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 39, worth -1.84 EP
PUNT +0.08 EP
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 11, worth +0.08 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.55 EP