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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 1 at the 66

Las Vegas Raiders 0 – Cleveland Browns 0

What Actually Happened

(13:25) 5-J.Townsend punts 47 yards to CLE 19, Center-47-T.Sieg. 11-A.Callaway pushed ob at CLE 28 for 9 yards (55-M.Lee).

The Three Options

GO +0.45 EP
Model's Pick
  • 69% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +2.27 EP
  • 31% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 66, worth -3.54 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

PUNT -0.54 EP
What Happened
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 24, worth -0.54 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.99 EP