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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 8 at the 73

Las Vegas Raiders 7 – Cleveland Browns 9

What Actually Happened

(11:05) 5-J.Townsend punts 44 yards to CLE 29, Center-47-T.Sieg. 22-J.Peppers to CLE 30 for 1 yard (17-D.Harris).

The Three Options

GO -1.91 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.98 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 73, worth -4.07 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (90 yards).

PUNT -1.30 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 31, worth -1.30 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model