Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Cleveland Browns 4th & 11 at the 82

Cleveland Browns 28 – Las Vegas Raiders 21

(4:16) 4-B.Colquitt punts 40 yards to LV 42, Center-47-C.Hughlett, fair catch by 17-D.Harris.

The Three Options

GO -2.89 EP

33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 71, worth +1.18 EP
67% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 82, worth -4.90 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (99 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model