Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 4 at the 71

Las Vegas Raiders 0 – Cleveland Browns 0

What Actually Happened

(10:56) 5-J.Townsend punts 38 yards to CLE 33, Center-47-T.Sieg, downed by LV-85-D.Carrier. PENALTY on CLE-20-B.Boddy-Calhoun, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at CLE 33.

The Three Options

GO -1.19 EP

47% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 67, worth +1.91 EP
53% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 71, worth -3.93 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (88 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model