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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 12 at the 61

Las Vegas Raiders 34 – Cleveland Browns 35

What Actually Happened

(5:54) 5-J.Townsend punts 39 yards to CLE 22, Center-47-T.Sieg, fair catch by 22-J.Peppers. PENALTY on LV-17-D.Harris, Fair Catch Interference, 15 yards, enforced at CLE 22.

The Three Options

GO -1.69 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 49, worth +2.29 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 61, worth -3.26 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (78 yards).

PUNT -0.64 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 20, worth -0.64 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model