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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 8 at the 9

Las Vegas Raiders 34 – Cleveland Browns 42

What Actually Happened

(1:54) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass incomplete short right to 89-A.Cooper.

The Three Options

GO +1.46 EP
What Happened
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 1, worth +6.07 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 9, worth -0.38 EP
KICK +1.98 EP
Model's Pick
  • 97% chance to make a 26-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.08 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 21, worth -0.79 EP
PUNT -0.44 EP
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 11, worth -0.44 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.53 EP