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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Cleveland Browns 4th & 7 at the 7

Cleveland Browns 0 – Las Vegas Raiders 7

What Actually Happened

(2:03) 17-G.Joseph 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-4-B.Colquitt.

The Three Options

GO +1.62 EP
Model's Pick
  • 31% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.59 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 7, worth -0.17 EP
KICK +1.56 EP
What Happened
  • 97% chance to make a 24-yard field goal: 3 points, then Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.64 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 21, worth -1.03 EP
PUNT -0.36 EP
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 11, worth -0.36 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model