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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 1 at the 29

Minnesota Vikings 7 – Los Angeles Rams 7

What Actually Happened

(12:21) 8-K.Cousins up the middle to LA 27 for 2 yards (50-S.Ebukam; 58-C.Littleton).

The Three Options

GO +2.08 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 65% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 28, worth +4.05 EP
  • 35% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 29, worth -1.60 EP
KICK +0.83 EP
  • 79% chance to make a 46-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.68 EP
  • 21% chance to miss: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 39, worth -2.34 EP
PUNT -0.32 EP
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 11, worth -0.32 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model