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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 2 at the 19

Minnesota Vikings 7 – Los Angeles Rams 7

What Actually Happened

(10:10) 5-D.Bailey 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-K.McDermott, Holder-6-M.Wile. Ball deflected off the right Upright.

The Three Options

GO +1.96 EP
Model's Pick
  • 53% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 17, worth +4.70 EP
  • 47% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 19, worth -1.07 EP
KICK +1.27 EP
What Happened
  • 91% chance to make a 36-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.54 EP
  • 9% chance to miss: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 29, worth -1.70 EP
PUNT -0.49 EP
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 11, worth -0.49 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.69 EP