4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 3 at the 68

Los Angeles Rams 14 – Minnesota Vikings 17

What Actually Happened

(7:05) 6-J.Hekker punts 39 yards to MIN 29, Center-44-J.McQuaide, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -0.71 EP
Model's Pick
  • 54% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.92 EP
  • 46% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 68, worth -3.76 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (85 yards).

PUNT -1.22 EP
What Happened
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 26, worth -1.22 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.51 EP