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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 10 at the 36

Los Angeles Rams 28 – Minnesota Vikings 20

What Actually Happened

(11:03) (Punt formation) 6-J.Hekker pass incomplete deep right to 83-J.Reynolds.

The Three Options

GO +0.08 EP
What Happened
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 26, worth +4.43 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 36, worth -1.81 EP
KICK +0.46 EP
Model's Pick
  • 64% chance to make a 53-yard field goal: 3 points, then Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.13 EP
  • 36% chance to miss: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 46, worth -2.56 EP
PUNT +0.07 EP
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 11, worth +0.07 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.37 EP