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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 7 at the 16

Los Angeles Rams 28 – Minnesota Vikings 20

What Actually Happened

(5:26) 5-S.Ficken 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-6-J.Hekker.

The Three Options

GO +1.50 EP
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 9, worth +5.42 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 16, worth -0.45 EP
KICK +2.01 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 94% chance to make a 33-yard field goal: 3 points, then Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.20 EP
  • 6% chance to miss: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 26, worth -0.85 EP
PUNT +0.11 EP
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 11, worth +0.11 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model