Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 18 at the 69

Minnesota Vikings 28 – Los Angeles Rams 38

What Actually Happened

(14:11) 6-M.Wile punts 48 yards to LA 21, Center-47-K.McDermott. 18-C.Kupp to LA 28 for 7 yards (27-J.Kearse). PENALTY on LA-36-D.Hatfield, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at LA 25.

The Three Options

GO -2.26 EP

24% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 51, worth +2.62 EP
76% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 69, worth -3.85 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (86 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model