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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 10 at the 10

Los Angeles Rams 38 – Minnesota Vikings 28

What Actually Happened

(8:25) 5-S.Ficken 28 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-6-J.Hekker.

The Three Options

GO +1.42 EP
  • 28% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.78 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 10, worth -0.24 EP
KICK +1.74 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 96% chance to make a 27-yard field goal: 3 points, then Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.83 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 21, worth -0.93 EP
PUNT -0.33 EP
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 11, worth -0.33 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model