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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 14 at the 22

Minnesota Vikings 28 – Los Angeles Rams 38

What Actually Happened

(3:50) 5-D.Bailey 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-K.McDermott, Holder-6-M.Wile.

The Three Options

GO +0.60 EP
  • 23% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 8, worth +5.22 EP
  • 77% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 22, worth -0.80 EP
KICK +1.65 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 89% chance to make a 39-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.02 EP
  • 11% chance to miss: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 32, worth -1.23 EP
PUNT -0.44 EP
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 11, worth -0.44 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model