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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 1 at the 66

Los Angeles Rams 38 – Minnesota Vikings 31

What Actually Happened

(2:30) 6-J.Hekker punts 32 yards to MIN 34, Center-44-J.McQuaide, downed by LA-24-B.Countess.

The Three Options

GO -0.02 EP
Model's Pick
  • 71% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.23 EP
  • 29% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 66, worth -3.05 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

PUNT -0.81 EP
What Happened
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 24, worth -0.81 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.79 EP