Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New York Giants 4th & 19 at the 73

New York Giants 7 – New Orleans Saints 3

What Actually Happened

(11:03) 9-R.Dixon punts 53 yards to NO 20, Center-51-Z.DeOssie. 87-B.Tate pushed ob at NO 32 for 12 yards (51-Z.DeOssie). PENALTY on NO-48-J.Gray, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at NO 25. Officially, a return for 5 yards.

The Three Options

GO -2.30 EP

26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 54, worth +2.88 EP
74% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 73, worth -4.07 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (90 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model