Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New York Giants 4th & 8 at the 73

New York Giants 7 – New Orleans Saints 9

What Actually Happened

(2:42) 9-R.Dixon punts 36 yards to NO 37, Center-51-Z.DeOssie. 87-B.Tate MUFFS catch, and recovers at NYG 49. 87-B.Tate to NYG 47 for 2 yards (51-Z.DeOssie).

The Three Options

GO -1.81 EP

38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.68 EP
62% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 73, worth -3.96 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (90 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model