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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New Orleans Saints 4th & 2 at the 67

New Orleans Saints 0 – New York Giants 7

What Actually Happened

(6:59) (Punt formation) 7-T.Hill pass short right to 34-J.Hardee to NO 43 for 10 yards (36-S.Chandler).

The Three Options

GO -0.77 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 62% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.19 EP
  • 38% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 67, worth -3.97 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (84 yards).

PUNT -1.28 EP
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 25, worth -1.28 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model