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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 1 at the 4

Jacksonville Jaguars 3 – New York Jets 0

What Actually Happened

(9:28) 4-J.Lambo 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Tinker, Holder-9-L.Cooke.

The Three Options

GO +3.99 EP
Model's Pick
  • 63% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 3, worth +6.19 EP
  • 37% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 4, worth +0.21 EP
KICK +1.84 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 21-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Jets takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.89 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: New York Jets takes over around their own 21, worth -0.87 EP
PUNT -0.28 EP
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 11, worth -0.28 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +2.15 EP