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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New York Jets 4th & 2 at the 48

New York Jets 0 – Jacksonville Jaguars 0

What Actually Happened

(12:30) 4-L.Edwards punts 42 yards to JAX 6, Center-42-T.Hennessy, downed by NYJ-27-D.Roberts.

The Three Options

GO +0.09 EP
Model's Pick
  • 55% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 46, worth +2.74 EP
  • 45% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 48, worth -3.20 EP
KICK -1.95 EP
  • 28% chance to make a 65-yard field goal: 3 points, then Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.40 EP
  • 72% chance to miss: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 49, worth -3.26 EP
PUNT -0.84 EP
What Happened
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 14, worth -0.84 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.93 EP