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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New York Jets 4th & 9 at the 9

New York Jets 0 – Jacksonville Jaguars 18

What Actually Happened

(4:58) 2-J.Myers 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-4-L.Edwards. Penalty on JAX-21-A.Bouye, Defensive Offside, declined.

The Three Options

GO +1.47 EP
  • 27% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.76 EP
  • 73% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 9, worth -0.09 EP
KICK +1.72 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 97% chance to make a 26-yard field goal: 3 points, then Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.81 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 21, worth -0.89 EP
PUNT -0.21 EP
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 11, worth -0.21 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model