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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New York Jets 4th & 17 at the 82

New York Jets 3 – Jacksonville Jaguars 25

What Actually Happened

(2:12) 4-L.Edwards punts 52 yards to JAX 30, Center-42-T.Hennessy. 85-J.Mickens to JAX 38 for 8 yards (23-T.Brooks).

The Three Options

GO -3.31 EP
  • 26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.20 EP
  • 74% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 82, worth -4.87 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (99 yards).

PUNT -2.25 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 40, worth -2.25 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model