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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 7 at the 53

Jacksonville Jaguars 25 – New York Jets 3

What Actually Happened

(:45) 9-L.Cooke punts 40 yards to NYJ 13, Center-46-C.Tinker. 19-A.Roberts to NYJ 20 for 7 yards (55-L.McCray). PENALTY on JAX-46-C.Tinker, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at NYJ 20.

The Three Options

GO -0.47 EP
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 46, worth +3.01 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 53, worth -2.53 EP
KICK -1.45 EP
  • 18% chance to make a 70-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Jets takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.50 EP
  • 82% chance to miss: New York Jets takes over around their own 49, worth -2.34 EP
PUNT -0.05 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 15, worth -0.05 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model