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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 1 at the 59

Jacksonville Jaguars 25 – New York Jets 12

What Actually Happened

(9:25) 9-L.Cooke punts 45 yards to NYJ 14, Center-46-C.Tinker, fair catch by 19-A.Roberts.

The Three Options

GO +0.66 EP
Model's Pick
  • 70% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 58, worth +2.15 EP
  • 30% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 59, worth -2.75 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (76 yards).

PUNT -0.62 EP
What Happened
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 18, worth -0.62 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.28 EP